Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Main Article Content

Safieh Javadinejadcorresponding author
Rebwar Dara
Forough Jafary

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to identify the heat waves of the South Sea of Iran and compare the conditions in the present and future. To reach this goal, the average daily temperature of 35 years has been used. Also, in order to predict future heat waves, the maximum temperature data of four models of the CMIP5 model series, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, has been used for the period 2040-2074. In order to reverse the output of the climatic models, artificial neural networks were used to identify the thermal waves, and the Fumiaki index was used to determine the thermal waves. Using the programming in MATLAB software, the days when their temperature exceeded 2 standard deviations as a thermal wave were identified. The results of the research show that the short-term heat waves are more likely to occur. Heat waves in the base period have a significant but poorly developed trend, so that the frequency has increased in recent years. In the period from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of thermal waves has a significant decreasing trend, but usually with low coefficients. However, for some stations from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of predicted heat waves increased.

Keywords
climate change, heat waves, RCP 8.5, climate models, CMIP5

Article Details

How to Cite
Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., & Jafary, F. (2020). Investigation of the effect of climate change on heat waves. Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2(1), 54-60. https://doi.org/10.25082/REIE.2020.01.001

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