Open Access Peer-reviewed Research Article

How groundwater level can predict under the effect of climate change by using artificial neural networks of NARX

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Submitted   Sep 30, 2020
Published   Dec 29, 2020
Issue    Vol 2 No 1 (2020)
DOI   10.25082/REIE.2020.01.005

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Safieh Javadinejad corresponding author
Department of Water Resource Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston St., B152TT, UK
Rebwar Dara
Department of Water Resource Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston St., B152TT, UK
Forough Jafary
Department of Water Resource Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston St., B152TT, UK

Abstract

The phenomenon of climate change in recent years has led to significant changes in climatic elements and as a result the status of surface and groundwater resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, this issue has sometimes caused a significant decline in groundwater resources. In this paper, the effects of climate change on the status of groundwater resources in Marvdasht plain have been investigated. Water supply of different parts of this region is highly dependent on groundwater resources and therefore the study of groundwater changes in future periods is important in the development of this plain and the management of its water resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change, the output of atmospheric circulation models (GCM) has been used.
Then, in order to adapt the output scale of these models to the scale required by local studies of climate change, precipitation and temperature data have been downscaled by LARS-WG model. Downscaled information was used to determine the amount of feed and drainage of the aquifer in future periods. To investigate changes in groundwater levels at different stages, a neural network dynamic model has been developed in MATLAB software environment. It is also possible to study and compare other points using other scenarios and mathematical modeling. The results of the study, assuming the current state of development in the region, indicate a downward trend in the volume of the aquifer due to climate change and its effects on resources and uses of the study area. The results also introduce Scenario A2 as the most critical scenario related to climate change, which also shows the largest aquifer decline in neural network modeling.

Keywords
groundwater, climate change, microscalling, NARX neural network

Article Details

How to Cite
Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., & Jafary, F. (2020). How groundwater level can predict under the effect of climate change by using artificial neural networks of NARX. Resources Environment and Information Engineering, 2(1), 90-99. https://doi.org/10.25082/REIE.2020.01.005
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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