Open Access Peer-reviewed Research Article

Global Oil Price Jumps and China’s New Energy Sector: New Evidence from Dynamic Volatility Models

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Volatility decomposition
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Submitted   Oct 19, 2025
Published   Jan 13, 2026
Issue    Vol 8 No 1 (2026)
DOI   10.25082/REE.2026.01.001

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Chuanguo Zhang corresponding author
School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China
Yujie Du
School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China

Abstract

Intensifying geopolitical tensions have recently amplified fluctuations in global crude oil prices, where abrupt price jumps often transmit complex spillovers across energy markets. This paper investigates the asymmetric, heterogeneous, and lagged impacts of oil price jump shocks on China's new energy industry at both aggregate and sub-industry levels spanning the full upstream-midstream-downstream industrial chain. Using an ARMA-EGARCH-ARJI framework, global oil price dynamics are modeled to capture volatility clustering and discrete jumps, while expected/unexpected and lag structures are applied to examine asymmetric and delayed responses. The results reveal a unique asymmetric pattern of dual inhibition/promotion: both expected increases and decreases in oil prices suppress new energy returns, whereas unexpected jumps stimulate the sector. The effects are heterogeneous across sub-industries, with upstream sectors showing weaker sensitivity to anticipated shocks. Moreover, the influence of oil price jumps unfolds with notable time lags. These findings underscore the structural tensions between market-oriented energy transformation and policy inertia, offering implications to enhance the resilience and efficiency of China's new energy transition.

Keywords
oil price, new energy industry chain, dynamic jumps, asymmetric effect

Article Details

Supporting Agencies
This research is supported by the National Social Sciences Fund of China (No. 24AJL007).
How to Cite
Zhang, C., & Du, Y. (2026). Global Oil Price Jumps and China’s New Energy Sector: New Evidence from Dynamic Volatility Models. Resources and Environmental Economics, 8(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.25082/REE.2026.01.001
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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